CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-03-07T22:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37722/-1
CME Note: This narrow on-disk CME is seen as a faint flux rope due south in SOHO LASCO C2 and simultaneously as a faint loop to the southeast in STEREO A COR2, which is currently 30 degrees to the west of SOHO LASCO. The source is a subtle eruption from AR 4012 (S20W00) starting at 2025-03-07T21:35Z, seen as dimming, brightening, and field line opening in SDO AIA 193 and 171, as well as GOES SUVI 284 and 304. || Arrival: The very weak passing influence of CME: 2025-03-07T22:12Z detected by ACE at L1 starting at 2025-03-10T13:44Z characterized by a brief period of compression from 2025-03-10T09:50Z to 13:36Z, followed by an inconsistent rotation in the Bx and By components lasting from 2025-03-10T13:44Z to about 2025-03-10T22:16Z. B-total does not become significantly enhanced during this period of rotation, remaining around 5 nT. The density and temperature both do not exhibit any significant increase or decrease.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-10T13:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-10T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SIDC URSIGRAM 50308 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Mar 2025, 1254UT ...Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 7 Sep at 19:48 UTC. However, LASCO-C3/SOHO imagery reveals that it is in fact two different CME, the first launched from an Active Region [AR] at the west solar limb and the second from SIDC Sunspot Group 427 (NOAA AR 4016) and is associated with the M1.6 flare (SIDC flare 3785) registered at 21:00 UTC. Although none of the two CME are partial halo, the later might deliver a glancing blow on 10 Sep due to the AR's location.Lead Time: 25.40 hour(s)
Difference: 11.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-09T12:20Z
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